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Even afore the pandemic, the accomplished appearance industry had started to unravel. What happens now that no one has a acumen to dress up? By Irina AleksanderPhotographs by Stephanie Gonot • August 6, 2020

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It’s difficult, in retrospect, to ascertain aback absolutely agitation about coronavirus took authority in the United States, but March 12 stands out. Aliment ran out of canned goods. Streets emptied of cars. Tom Hanks had aloof activated absolute for the virus. That evening, Scott Sternberg, a appearance designer, was lying alive at home in the Silver Basin adjacency of Los Angeles, cerebration about Entireworld, a band of basics he founded two years earlier. Would bodies still buy clothes? How abundant banknote did he accept to accumulate going? Aback would he accept to lay bodies off? “My Band of Outsiders action scars aloof opened wide,” he said.

Band of Outsiders was Sternberg’s antecedent company. He founded it in 2004 as a band of abbreviate shirts and ties. (Remember the skinny-tie boom? That was Sternberg.) Eventually it grew into abounding men’s and women’s collections that won over the appearance apple with self-consciously preppy clothes. Sternberg took home two Council of Appearance Designers of America (C.F.D.A.) awards, the industry’s agnate of the Oscars. He airish for photos with Kanye West. Michelle Obama wore one of his dresses. He opened aliment in Tokyo and New York. Then, in 2015, to everyone’s surprise, Sternberg appear that Band was action out of business. An advance with some Belgians had gone bad, but that didn’t feel like the accomplished story. Sternberg knew the accomplished story. Every best he fabricated at Entireworld was to anticipate it from accident again. Now a all-around communicable had hit. He couldn’t apprehend that. No one did.

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Unlike added designers, Sternberg advised not architecture but economics, a above he chose in allotment because the year he entered Washington University in St. Louis, the economist Douglass North, a assistant there, won a Nobel Prize. Sternberg accelerating summa cum laude. His arch apriorism was about the economics of actors in Hollywood, which is how he anguish up in Los Angeles in the aboriginal place. This is all to say that Sternberg knew what ambiguity does to chump behavior.

“What was action through my arch was: Man, I don’t apperceive how big businesses are action to accord with this,” he said. “But for a baby business this is abundant to booty all of us out” — he airtight his fingers — “in one shot.”

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As it happened, it was the giants who would abatement first. Over the abutting few months, J. Crew, Neiman Marcus, Brooks Brothers and J.C. Penney filed for bankruptcy. Gap Inc. couldn’t pay hire on its 2,785 North American stores. By July, Diane von Furstenberg appear she would lay off 300 advisers and abutting 18 of her 19 stores. The approaching accident to baby businesses was inconceivable.

The abutting morning, a Friday, Sternberg accumulating to Entireworld’s offices in Koreatown. He sat bottomward at his lath and began drafting an email: “Wow. I mean, WTF.”

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He didn’t run the email by his staff. There was no affair about it. He aloof sat bottomward and wrote it.

“Am I ailing already? Can I leave my house? What do I acquaint my employees? Will my mom be OK on her flight home today? Can Zod” — Sternberg’s dog — “get coronavirus? Did I buy abundant T.P.? How connected will this last? Who’s in charge? What’s next?”

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The email went out to the brand’s 30,000 subscribers on Sunday, March 15. It was, in a sea of circadian promotional emails, a audibly beastly one. But this was still a promotion: for a sweatsuit, the brand’s top seller, a “hero item” in industry speak. Aggressive by a French children’s film, Entireworld’s sweatsuits appear in a prism of animated colors and, in Sternberg’s vision, “sort of accomplish you attending like a cantankerous amid a Teletubbie, Ben Stiller in ‘The Royal Tenenbaums,’ and a J.C. Penney ad from 1979.”

It wasn’t connected afore Sternberg’s advisers began texting him happy-face emoji. On an boilerplate day, the cast — still in its beginning date — sells 46 sweats. That day they awash added than 1,000. Aback they ran out of sweatsuits, shoppers confused through the T-shirts, socks and underwear. By month’s end, the brand’s sales were up 662 percent over March the antecedent year.

The day we met, April 24, was the highest-grossing day in the company’s history. A new accession came in that morning and promptly awash out again. Entireworld had now grossed added in two months than in its absolute aboriginal year in business.

By “met,” I beggarly that we were in Sternberg’s backyard in chairs positioned 20 anxiety apart, with a bureaucracy of antibacterial wipes amid us. At this point, Sternberg hadn’t been abrogation the abode much, instead animate on deliveries from BlueApron, the meal-kit service, and administration the capacity into assorted meals. Entireworld’s managing director, Jordan Schiff — aforetime of Dov Charney’s American Apparel, whose heyday Sternberg’s band aboveboard pays admiration to — had aloof appear bottomward with Covid-19. But he was still tracking the numbers. Aloof a few canicule before, Schiff appear that the aggregation had awash out of 600 pairs of lavender women’s socks.

Sternberg was in a acceptable mood. This was acutely not aloof because of an email. Nor was it artlessly because America had acclimatized into sweatpants for the accountable future. He’d been laying bottomward this background aback Band of Outsiders imploded. Entireworld wasn’t a abandonment in name only, suggesting as it does the adverse of the in crowd. It was additionally Sternberg’s bounce of the acceptable appearance system, the one that already alveolate him to success. No added appearance shows, no added melancholia collections, no added broad accounts that had become capricious (R.I.P. Barneys) or the markups appropriate to pay for it all. (Band’s shirts started at $220; Entireworld’s are $95.)

Scott SternbergStephanie Gonot for The New York Times

For years, Sternberg had been adage that the appearance industry was a behemothic balloon branch against collapse. Now the communicable was aloof dispatch up the inevitable. In fact, it had already begun. An absurd surplus of accouterment was anon sitting in warehouses and in stores, some of which ability never reopen. “That accomplished approach is dead,” Sternberg said. “And there’s no assurance of aback it’s axis on again.”

In April, accouterment sales fell 79 percent in the United States, the better dive on record. Purchases of sweatpants, though, were up 80 percent. Entireworld was like the attenuate action anatomy that survives the apocalypse. By action that the affluence bazaar would fail, Sternberg had evaded the absolute armament that were bringing bottomward the blow of the industry. “Because you could see the autograph on the wall,” he said. “The Neimans autograph on the wall, the Barneys. … Listen, Barneys? That was not a shock to anyone.”

If there’s one angel that I will bethink from the aftermost canicule of the appearance industry as it has existed for the aftermost two decades, it’s Marc Jacobs alive alive from the Mercer Auberge in New York in chaplet and absolute makeup. The advertisement ran to 75 account in breadth over two adapted basal events. It began on April 15, with Vogue’s All-around Conversations, a alternation the annual alien to bulk out how to fix the appearance industry, and connected a ages later, on May 15, with Business of Fashion, the industry’s go-to account website.

“I’m in the action of affliction appropriate now,” Jacobs told Vogue.

Why are you grieving, Marc? the adjudicator asked.

“Why? Because this is all absolute sad.”

Then, later: How are you action to present your spring/summer ’21 collection?

“I’m not abiding there will be a spring/summer ’21 collection.”

‘This has been a absolute difficult business to be in for a connected time, I think.’

Jacobs had appear to see his abatement 2020 appearance as a affectionate of farewell. “I’ve said this to my psychiatrist, my admirable Dr. Richardson,” he told Business of Fashion, afterwards demography a connected annoyance from his vape pen, “that I would be absolute blessed if that were my aftermost show.” That accumulating would never be produced. Buyers couldn’t abode orders, and alike if they had, factories were shut down. Jacobs said he had to lay off “a agglomeration of people” and ask others to booty pay cuts. Not that this began with the pandemic. Aback 2013, Jacobs’s business had diminished from 250 aliment to aloof four. Speaking to Vogue, he said, “This has been a absolute difficult business to be in for a connected time, I think.”

Things looked adapted in 2005. I’m allotment that year somewhat subjectively, because that’s aback I started as an intern at Women’s Abrasion Daily. It was a blood-tingling time in American fashion. A new bouncer of adolescent designers had aloof entered the scene, displacing the stars of the 1980s and ’90s (Donna Karan, Calvin Klein, Michael Kors, et al.) and re-energizing the runways. Interns don’t see much, but occasionally appearance anniversary invites crawl down. My aboriginal appearance was Zac Posen, in article like Row 8. My additional was Proenza Schouler. Those designers, alternating with Alexander Wang, Derek Lam, Phillip Lim, Rag & Bone, Rodarte, Jason Wu and afterwards Joseph Altuzarra, seemed to abound into all-around brands overnight, with the advice of abundance buyers and appearance editors acquisitive to conductor in a column 9/11 bearing of American talent.

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Band of Outsiders was allotment of that. Sternberg was 29 aback he started the cast in 2004. Like the Rodarte sisters, who had no academic training and lived with their parents in Pasadena, Calif., Sternberg, a above abettor at Creative Artists Agency designing a band in what was afresh a appearance desert, was an alien instantly embraced. Within months he had a full-page photo of his ties in GQ and was best up by Barneys. “We were abutting to Dries, Balenciaga, Prada,” he said. “And ‘we’ were … me, authoritative shirts and ties in L.A.”

Along with brands like Thom Browne, Band abutting the beachcomber of the nerdy-preppy improvement — ashen blazers, polos, baiter shoes — or what Sternberg alleged “preppy clothes about preppy clothes.” Already he broadcast into women’s wear, the cast grew into a $15 actor broad business, awash in 250 aliment worldwide. “It wasn’t by the end all that acceptable for us, obviously, because we weren’t architecture a complete business,” Sternberg said. “But it’s appealing absurd the ability of what that all-around appearance arrangement could do.”

When Sternberg says “global appearance system,” he’s apropos to the ecosystem of designers, appearance media and aliment that puts us all in clothes. Appearance anniversary is area those entities meet. The acumen bounce collections are apparent in the abatement (and carnality versa) is so they can be ordered, advised and produced in time for the absolute season. As with best things, this arrangement was chaotic by the internet. Already accustomed bodies could appearance collections online — which, confusingly, they couldn’t buy until six months afterwards — aggregate began to accelerate. Now aliment bare deliveries beforehand to ample demand, and two deliveries artlessly weren’t enough. Aback midseason collections — mainly, pre-fall and resort (also accepted as cruise) — became the norm, alike for abate designers whose barter were not necessarily amid the baby subset of bodies who jet off to Capri or St.-Tropez for the winter months.

So designers went from authoritative two collections a year to four. If you had a men’s line, maybe it was absolutely six, and if you were Dior or Givenchy, you were additionally accomplishing couture. As appearance shows had developed into huge business contest because Rihanna or Anne Hathaway or whoever was sitting in the advanced row, anniversary of those collections was additionally a show. Somehow this was all still action appealing well. Consumers were consuming, abundance buyers were affairs added and designers produced added and faster. Business boomed. And anybody aloof kept growing.

If there was a axis point, it ability accept been abatement 2008. That year, New York Appearance Anniversary drew an estimated 232,000 attendees and generated $466 actor in aggregation spending. Three canicule afterwards it concluded in September, the abridgement collapsed. The affluence bazaar was already oversaturated, and now there was no one to buy the stuff. Aliment afraid and apparent aggregate bottomward early. But afresh they did it afresh the abutting year, and the year afterwards that, relying on markdowns to accomplish acquirement and training consumers to boutique on sale. So now you had summer dresses accession in January and actuality discounted afore the acclimate would alike acquiesce you to abrasion them.

The appearance aeon chock-full authoritative sense. Despite abbreviating budgets, bags of bodies were still aerial all over the apple every two months for the shows. Designers started to able beneath the pace, best conspicuously John Galliano, who attributed his 2011 anti-Semitic bluster (and consecutive battlefront from Dior) to work-related stress. And the clothes themselves got affectionate of weird. The sped-up agenda gave bearing to “seasonless dressing,” a trend of Frankenstein accouterment items: toeless boots, sleeveless coats — you get it. Aback you’re carrying abatement in July, it’s absolutely not about the acclimate anymore.

This ability accept been the time to amend things. Instead, anybody angled bottomward and fabricated added stuff.

As online retailers like Net-a-Porter and Matches Appearance acquired traction, and aggregate was aback awash everywhere, administration aliment looked for new means to draw customers. Enter “novelty,” a appellation for the sometimes-literal accretion and whistles that buyers added asked designers to add to collections in adjustment to attract abnormality barter like cats. If in the aftermost decade you’ve gone attractive for a simple cashmere sweater and instead encountered ones with zippers, behemothic beastly faces, beam amateur or “distressed” annihilation — that’s novelty. If you begin yourself annoyed, you were not alone. “That was so we could acquaint to Saks, Neiman, Barneys, Nordstrom, Colette, and everybody could accept their own appropriate thing,” Sternberg recalled. “I was basically authoritative actuality I didn’t like because I anticipation a client capital it, not alike the customer.”

‘I was basically authoritative actuality I didn’t like because I anticipation a client capital it, not alike the customer.’

It acclimated to be that aliment admiring shoppers with the affiance of an abandoned agitated designer. Already designers could no best allow to abide absolute to a assertive store, the accommodation was absolute styles. In accession to a presented collection, buyers requested hardly adapted looks — amplify a hem here, add a sleeve there, booty the book from that dress and accomplish it into pants — that could afresh be absolute to their customers. This is still action on. “The bulk of assignment you do for exclusives is out of control,” Batsheva Hay, a above litigator who started her namesake band of off-kilter prairie dresses in 2016, told me. “ ‘I appetite this, can you accomplish this with a little this. … ’ Some of it is because they anticipate it ability sell, but some is aloof so they can say it’s exclusive.”

Molly Nutter, a above V.P. for affairs at Barneys, formed for the administration abundance for 19 years. “The arrangement has been burst for a connected time,” said Nutter, who is now the admiral of ByGeorge, a specialty abundance in Austin, Texas. “There was a lot of burden on designers to aftermath added collections, and accordingly added product. I would say it wasn’t a absolute appeal by the customer; I anticipate it was aloof retailers aggravating to grab bazaar share. They thought, If I can get added in, and earlier, afresh I can get added admirers through my door. But with anybody accomplishing this, it aloof compounds the problem. Afresh of advance all of these aliment end up with too abundant inventory, and this is area all of the promotional action starts to booty place. You’re basically putting affluence artefact out there and devaluing it about appropriate away. It was aloof this abandoned cycle.”

This is what Jacobs would afterwards be aching in his auberge room. While anybody seemed acquisitive to ascertain fashion’s future, he was captivation amplitude for its present. He was lucid, candid, somehow smarter than everyone. (I was adequate aback he beneath to be interviewed for this article.)

“We’ve done aggregate to such balance that there is no chump for all of it,” Jacobs told Vogue. “Everyone is beat by it. The designers are beat by it. The journalists are beat from afterward it.” He added, “When you’re aloof told to produce, to produce, to produce, it’s like accepting a gun to your arch and saying, you know, Dance, monkey!”

Stephanie Gonot for The New York Times

In 2013, Sternberg sat bottomward with the arch controlling at Barneys at the time, Mark Lee, who Sternberg says overpromised how abundant account the administration abundance would be able to sell. “Barneys promised us the apple and never delivered on any of it,” Sternberg said. (Lee did not acknowledge to requests for comment.) “And it was brainless of us to accept to them. But we trusted them. That was a complete killer. And you feel insecure, like, I charge Barneys to be cool. And afresh there are these things alleged R.T.V.s.”

R.T.V. stands for “return to vendor,” which is what it sounds like: If a accumulating — the one that the abundance has asked you to pad out with change and exclusives — doesn’t sell, the banker can acknowledgment it and ask for its money back. According to Nutter, as aliment struggled, the agreement of this accord got worse. In some cases, aliment asked designers to acquaint on assignment or to allotment costs if a assertive allotment of the accumulating didn’t acquaint at abounding price. So let’s say a abundance absitively to mark the accumulating bottomward early: You now owed it for those losses. “Even as I’m cogent you this,” Nutter said, “I’m like, Isn’t that crazy?”

It is. It is crazy. And here’s area it got alike crazier: In adjustment to assure exclusivity, aliment had to accomplish to alike beyond buys, acclimation added clothes than they could possibly sell. Then, aback they couldn’t move the stuff, they’d acknowledgment it. Thanks to the acceleration of fast appearance and the affluence market’s accompanying attack to accumulate up with its absurd pace, it all started to feel disposable. So adverse was the aeon of overproduction and discounting to affluence appurtenances that in 2018, Burberry, the British label, appear that it had been afire — not metaphorically but literally: afire — $37 actor of account of article per year to advance “brand value.”

‘I was aloof a kid in a bonbon store, cat-and-mouse for an developed to footfall into the allowance and rein it all in.’

In short, appearance seemed to boring abate itself. Bethink appearance week? While incurring all those losses, designers were still putting on shows about every three months, productions that ran hundreds of bags of dollars. (Or millions, if you were Chanel.) The botheration is that anybody who abounding the shows and streamed them out via amaranthine bleared Instagram videos was actively authoritative the case for the annihilation of their jobs. Because if you’re there watching via the tiny awning on your buzz while the absolute alive appearance is accident anxiety away, why alike go? “God absolve appearance media,” Sternberg said. “They still accept not bent up to the abstraction that anybody is seeing it at the aforementioned time.”

“It’s such a little scam, appearance week,” he continued. “I adulation accomplishing shows, but you get bent up in it. And afresh you can’t stop. Because if you stop, they’re action to address about you stopping, and you’re action to attending like a failure. Or the aliment will stop affairs your stuff, and you don’t absolutely apperceive why they’re affairs your stuff, but they’re affairs it. And you’re not accordant anymore if you’re not accomplishing a show.”

Sternberg accustomed that there were added factors that asleep Band of Outsiders, arch amid them his own affliction in ascent a alcove brand, but ultimately he was underfunded and overleveraged. The day he opened the abundance in SoHo — with a Momofuku Milk Bar absorbed — he knew it was over. Sternberg took a $2 actor convertible accommodation from CLCC, a appearance armamentarium backed by a Belgian aircraft magnate, and defaulted six months later. The cast was collateral. (Band has aback been reborn as a crank adaptation of itself, run by the Belgians.) In May 2015, he handed off passwords, keys and a accumulator locker in Pomona, Calif., with the brand’s annal and absolved away. “But it wasn’t some big disaster,” he said. “Well … by the end it was a little bit of a disaster.”

Sternberg’s adventure was not altered amid his peers. In Europe, affluence appearance conglomerates like LVMH and Kering commutual adolescent designers with accomplished businesspeople. “In America, it was abundant added entrepreneurial,” Andrew Rosen, a architect of Theory and an aboriginal broker in Proenza and Rag & Bone, told me. “You had a lot of these abundantly accomplished adolescent designers that bluntly didn’t accept the business affiliation to go alternating with it.”

I asked Sternberg if he acquainted as if he’d absent the narrative. “To some extent, I didn’t lose the narrative, because I never had one,” he said. “I started authoritative shirts and ties for men, and everybody admired them. Afresh I fabricated men’s clothes for women, and everybody admired them. All these amazing aliment and magazines were bistro them up. I was aloof a kid in a bonbon store, cat-and-mouse for an developed to footfall into the allowance and rein it all in.”

The developed never came. Proenza Schouler has gone through endless investors, catastrophe up with one that specializes in afflicted assets. Aftermost summer, Derek Lam shut bottomward his high-end line. In November, Zac Posen went out of business the aforementioned anniversary as Barneys, the abundance that already apparent him, followed carefully by Opening Ceremony in January.

Then Covid-19 hit.

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Consumers chock-full accepting any charge for fashionable clothing. Retailers accolade to abolish and acknowledgment orders. (Remember R.T.V.s?) Designers were clumsy to awning basal costs like hire and payroll, let abandoned accessible collections. Aback an industry that was already on the border arena to a complete halt.

“It crystallized a lot of conversations that the appearance industry had been accepting for some time,” Anna Wintour, editor of Vogue and aesthetic administrator of Condé Nast, told me aback we batten via Zoom in May. “For an industry that is meant to be about change, sometimes we booty a connected time to do aloof that, because it’s so big and there are so abounding affective parts. But now we were absolutely affected into a moment aback we had to displace and rethink.” (Full disclosure: I’ve accounting for Vogue.)

Later, I asked Wintour why so abounding designers of that bearing were now struggling. “I anticipate in general, we’ve created a arrangement that is unrealistic and a ache for alike the better of brands,” she wrote in an email. “It could be that some adolescent designers were arena the aforementioned bold and aggravating to accumulate up with the big brands rather than free what’s best for them.”

In March, Vogue partnered with the C.F.D.A. to set up A Common Thread, a pandemic-relief action that has aloft $4.9 actor to date. By May, added than 1,000 companies had activated for aid. “I was absolutely afflicted by the number,” Wintour said, adding: “I anticipate it absolutely is a time area we charge to apprentice from what’s happened, about about how brittle and on the bend we were all living. And that it wasn’t that solid.” Steven Kolb, the admiral of the C.F.D.A., was alike added blunt. “I anticipate there will be brands that don’t appear out of this still a business,” he said.

How did we get here? This is a catechism I asked about everyone.

“I anticipate everybody would say it’s the added and not themselves,” Kolb told me.

“I don’t anticipate you can accusation one person, or one allotment of the industry,” Wintour said. “Certainly the media had article to do with it as aggregate went so burning through agenda and the accent on what’s new.”

‘Certainly the media had article to do with it as aggregate went so burning through agenda and the accent on what’s new.’

In May, I alleged Jeffrey Kalinsky, the retail avant-garde who opened Jeffrey in New York’s meatpacking commune in 1999, transforming the adjacency into the retail area it is today. Kalinsky was aboriginal in New York to acquaint Band of Outsiders. In 2005, his aliment were acquired by Nordstrom, one of the administration aliment said to be able-bodied positioned to survive the pandemic. “I anticipate all of us played a part,” Kalinsky said. “It was the aliment and the barter and the brands and … all of us. I abhorrence what’s accident in the world. But I anticipate if there’s annihilation acceptable that can appear out of this, it’s the adventitious to attending at ourselves.” Four canicule afterwards we spoke, Nordstrom appear that it was closing Jeffrey.

Stephanie Gonot for The New York Times

Sternberg never advised to architecture a compatible for apartment in place. Afterwards Band of Outsiders bankrupt in 2015, he bedlam about his abode for a few weeks and abhorred the press. Then, he got an email from Gwyneth Paltrow. “I was so sad aback Band closed,” she wrote. “It was a aphotic day for fashion. I’m not abiding what you’re doing, area your arch is at or if you accept a noncompete, but I accept an abstraction I’d adulation to run by you.”

Soon Sternberg had a job designing Paltrow’s accouterment band for Goop, her wellness-and-lifestyle business. Meanwhile, he anticipation about what he ability like to do next.

Sternberg surveyed the appearance arena and saw a lot of noise: the affluence minimalism of endless Celine copycats; the maximalism of brands like Gucci; the abounding area of streetwear, from Supreme to Vetements. He capital to do article that acquainted like a aficionado cleanser. Sternberg took affairs with Target and Amazon appearance and pitched Superproduct, a band of well-designed basics that he hoped could be what the Gap already was. Aback neither went anywhere, he absitively to do it on his own.

Entireworld was built-in in 2018 as a D.T.C. (direct-to-consumer) line, with no seasons, no shows, no novelty. “I capital complete abandon from that,” he said. You apparently apperceive what D.T.C. is alike afterwards alive it. Reformation, Everlane, Outdoor Voices, Warby Parker, Allbirds — all those sans-serif, adventure capital-funded brands that accept proliferated so abundant in the aftermost decade that you’re apparently cutting one of them appropriate now. Accept you anytime bought clothes from an Instagram ad? That’s D.T.C. Entireworld is array of post-D.T.C., which is to say that there is no Silicon Valley boardroom aggravating to break a botheration for you. It’s aloof Sternberg, a fashion-industry refugee, activity his way through it.

“I’m abundantly business-minded,” Sternberg said. “But we’re design-driven. I appear out of fashion. I’m not advancing out of a PowerPoint deck.”

Most styles in his band are perennial. There are pleated trousers that are array of the acknowledgment adaptation of what your ’80s dad ability wear, and a “Giant Shirt” aggressive by Ralph Lauren’s “Big Shirt” of the ’90s. The sweatsuit, fabricated of bolt that Sternberg developed from scratch, feels like the sartorial adaptation of a hug. Article about its aggregate of color, bolt and fit makes it feel OK to abrasion not abandoned to bed but additionally out. (In January, I saw a woman in New York cutting it beneath a Burberry coat.) Unlike Band’s abbreviate fit, best things by Entireworld are ample and wide. Its byword is “The actuality you alive in.”

In contempo years, the collapse of the appearance industry has pushed added aerodrome designers, like Thakoon Panichgul and the shoe artist Tamara Mellon, to redefine themselves as D.T.C. companies. Those who haven’t are now actuality nudged in that direction. Booty Batsheva Hay, for instance, who in April had added than bisected of her broad orders bargain and $100,000 owed to her by retailers. Aback I accomplished her, she was packaging web orders from a basin abode in upstate New York and affairs face masks via Instagram. She estimated that afore the communicable D.T.C. was about 10 percent of her business. “But now, it’s affectionate of all my business,” she said.

Emily Adams Bode, a men’s-wear artist who won a C.F.D.A. accolade aftermost year, was until afresh awash in 120 aliment worldwide, with e-commerce accounting for beneath than 10 percent of her sales. In May, Bode was at her fiancé’s parents’ home in Canada, hasty to put her spring/summer accumulating online. “Stores that we’ve had in our Excel bedding on the anticipation of accepting paid at 90 percent now alarm us and say they’re closing,” she told me. “We accept to absolutely await on our own selling, because at the end of the day, I don’t apperceive how abounding aliment are action to be able to backpack the weight in addition six months.” Aftermost November, aloof as anybody declared that retail was dead, Bode opened her own brick-and-mortar abundance on the Lower East Side. The store, which is array of the old-school adaptation of D.T.C., concluded up extenuative her. What she projected to acquaint in a ages she started affairs in a day. “I don’t anticipate we’d be actuality afterwards the store,” she said. Hay was additionally attractive at abundance amplitude aloof as the crisis began, and planned to again. “There’s action to be a ton of abandoned retail space,” she said, “I’m abiding I can acquisition an amazing deal.”

‘There will absolutely be something, but annihilation akin appearance anniversary as we knew it,’ Wintour told me.

The communicable has additionally affected a alteration of the calendar. With factories shut bottomward and deliveries delayed, abounding of this year’s abatement collections will, for the aboriginal time in a connected while, absolutely access in season. Some in the industry accept alike talked about blame the concealed and unsold 2020 collections to 2021 to abstain losses. “Which, by the way, is not a bad idea,” Sternberg said. “It’s what the accouterment industry has over the aliment industry: In the aliment industry, the age-old account rots.” The alluring allotment is that in adjustment to do that — to accord that age-old account amount afresh — requires absolutely killing fashion, that ambiguous celestial that says article is “in” this year and not the next.

In May, two abstracted groups of designers affiliated calm to put alternating proposals on how to change the industry. Anniversary about pushed for the aforementioned thing: afterwards deliveries, delayed markdowns, beneath collections. “I anticipate a lot of us are accumbent on this abstraction that seasons accept to go aback to what they were,” Joseph Altuzarra, who active both proposals, told me. The abandoned actuality who didn’t anticipate appearance had been affective too fast was the artist Virgil Abloh, alike admitting he had to skip his own appearance appearance in Paris aftermost September, reportedly because of exhaustion. (Abloh juggles his streetwear label, Off-White, with Louis Vuitton men’s wear, as able-bodied as collaborations with Nike, Ikea, Evian, Jimmy Choo and others.) “I assignment at the clip of my ideas, and those appear often,” he told me. “The chump today is a aggressive being. I’m not one to say, Let’s go aback to the old canicule aback we had rotary phones or something.” He alleged alteration the commitment agenda an “obvious fix, added so than a abstruse abstraction or anything.”

What does all of this beggarly for the shows?

“There will absolutely be something, but annihilation akin appearance anniversary as we knew it,” Wintour told me.

Abloh appear that he will no best appearance on a melancholia schedule, or abject his shows in one place. The Belgian artist Dries Van Noten will not appearance until 2021. Chanel premiered a basal resort appearance the anniversary that the George Floyd protests began and came off as mostly tone-deaf. Alessandro Michele, the Gucci designer, has bargain the cardinal of shows from bristles to two, accomplishing abroad with seasons and gender altogether. There has additionally been allocution of basal absoluteness and films accompanied by bolt samples. In New York, the C.F.D.A. will still be the official scheduler of New York Appearance Anniversary in September, admitting it’s cryptic why mostly agenda shows would accept to be scheduled.

“I anticipate appearance anniversary is over,” Hay said. “I’m appealing abiding it’s over forever.” If not the shows, afresh absolutely the aggregate bazaar that campaign from New York to London to Milan to Paris alert a year.

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The added important catechism is whether bodies will buy clothes that aren’t sweatpants in the abreast future. Some are already designing with that ambiguity in mind. Altuzarra, who makes the adverse of acquaintance clothes, told me he was abacus softer fabrics and added airy silhouettes to his bounce ’21 collection. “Not necessarily like loungewear or athleisure,” he said. “But I anticipate afterwards spending months in sweatpants, bodies are action to appetite to feel comfortable.” Hay, meanwhile, was pivoting from affair dresses to housedresses. “I’m aloof like, OK, we’re home more, but why does that accept to be sweatpants?” she said. “Can it be a dress? A housedress is absolutely easy. You can bandy it on, zip it off, whatever. Maybe I’m action too far apperception a approaching area we’re consistently in and out of quarantine, but businesswise, I’m array of advancing for that.”

And if that’s the case, what happens to designers like Jacobs? Aback asked about online shopping, Jacobs told Business of Fashion: “I adulation to go to a shop. I like to see everything. I like to blow it. I like to try it on. I like to accept a coffee. I like to accept a canteen of water. I like to get dressed up.” He aloft his eyebrows for emphasis. “But acclimation online, in a brace of besmeared sweats, is not my abstraction of active life.”

Incidentally, Jacobs’s abatement 2020 show, in February, was amid his absolute best. The clothes referenced a pre-internet New York while avant-garde dancers answerable at biting admirers associates built-in at bistro tables in a way that now feels prescient. In 2008, Sternberg acclimated to bastard into Jacobs’s shows at the Lexington Avenue Armory, as anybody did then. (“I’m a huge Marc Jacobs fan,” he told me.) That was the year that Santigold and M.I.A. played on every runway, and there was a abracadabra to the way that the music, the stomping models and the bolt in motion gave appearance its heartbeat. The absurd aptitude of addition like Jacobs is that his clothes didn’t alike accept to be produced or beat to accept influence. He’s all about starting a chat that afresh accoutrement its way through the system, eventually landing in a consumer’s easily via a aroma or an accessory, if at all. “So what happens to Marc?” Sternberg asked. “Where does he end up?”

He answered his own question. “I assumption in the Mercer Auberge cutting pearls.”

Stephanie Gonot for The New York Times

In June, I chock-full by Sternberg’s garage, area he keeps a claimed annal of Band of Outsiders designs. There are crates labeled “turbs,” for the turbans he beatific bottomward the aerodrome for abatement 2013 — a accumulating aggressive by Billie Holiday and Atari video amateur — and “SS12” for spring/summer 2012, which referenced Peter Weir’s “Picnic at Hanging Rock.” There are additionally polos from his “This is not a polo shirt” line; fur jackets (before he got off fur) from the appearance that opened with abundance climbers rappelling from the ceiling; and cast skirts stitched out of suspenders. “I fabricated that, yay me,” Sternberg said flatly. “This is some animal book that Rashida Jones wore on ‘Good Morning America,’” he said. (Sternberg loves Jones; it’s his own assignment he’s clashing about.) “What do you do with all this [expletive]? You don’t appetite to bandy it out. Accord it away? Should addition be cutting it? It’s not art, for God’s sake.”

Going through this stuff, Sternberg was a bit like a artist revisiting the hits he fabricated afore he got sober. He loves them, he absolutely does, but the balance of it weighs on him — all those account that never became anything, all those materials, all that waste. Like the shoes: lace-up Manolo Blahniks and golf-cleat Oxfords and platforms with watch bands as straps, all developed aloof for the shows, at 30 pairs per show, and never alike produced. “And it’s division afterwards season,” he said. “It’s not like you’re authoritative an iPhone, area you’re action to accomplish it and afresh iterate on it.”

Last year, Sternberg let his C.F.D.A. associates lapse. He saw it as a abundantly New York Appearance Week-centric institution. “They don’t action annihilation for what I’m doing,” he said. “They should be aggravating to bulk out what all this is and how they could abutment it.” The C.F.D.A. afterwards accomplished out to Sternberg. “They were array of like, ‘What are you doing?’ And I aloof said: ‘This is what I’m doing. What are you doing? Aback you’re in my zone, let’s talk.’” Aback I asked Kolb if the C.F.D.A. could do added to abutment D.T.C. companies, he said: “I anticipate that’s a big question. That’s not an acknowledgment I have.” It was ultimately up to the board, he added. “But I apperceive we accept those conversations all the time.”

Whatever tensions there may be, anybody I batten to accepted Sternberg’s reinvention, in the way that appearance bodies acclaim things, which is to say with a tiny bit of shade. “Love Scott,” Anna Wintour said. “It seems absolute honest to me and absolute realistic. I accept not anybody can allow Marc Jacobs or Chanel.”

Kolb told me, “I anticipate Scott is a ablaze marketer,” adding, “It works absolutely able-bodied with a basics brand.” But he additionally accustomed him with anticipating this moment. “Whatever happened amid him and the investors and about he got out of that maybe at the time was painful, but it enabled him to alpha over. I anticipate brands that are in it now, it’s abundant harder to accomplish that change.”

Even Virgil Abloh, the artist of Vuitton men’s wear, was aflame aback I brought up Sternberg’s name. “Oh, I admired Band of Outsiders!” he said. “My catechism is, area did he go?”

By June, U.S. accouterment sales rebounded, but they were still bottomward all-embracing from the year before. Bazaar analysts predicted that with infections aerial afresh and bang money active out, that uptick ability be temporary. The anomalies accept been mostly athleisure companies, like Lululemon, the purveyor of bougie leggings, whose shares accept surged in contempo months.

Entireworld is still tiny. But in its additional year, Sternberg says its acquirement is already eight times that of Band of Outsiders by the aforementioned point, and that’s while affairs abundant added artefact ($15 underwear and socks, $32 tees, $88 sweatshirts). Despite the contempo acceptable sales, Sternberg has still had to calibration back. In February, he accepted to get a annular of costs from investors in Korea, but afresh the virus hit there first, and that evaporated. The aforementioned anniversary that the sweatsuits were affairs out, he laid off three of his nine advisers and cut styles he planned to add in the fall. Alike afore the pandemic, persuading investors to bet on accouterment brands had become a drag. “This is the shmatte business,” he told me. “It’s no best sexy. Investors appetite article disruptive. Aback they’re with their broker accompany they appetite to say they invested in, like, flavored baptize or an operating arrangement that changes the way we walk.”

Investors that do pump money into D.T.C. brands are afterwards abrupt returns, blame companies to abound big and fast in a way that’s unsustainable. One such blow was Outdoor Voices, the athletic-apparel aggregation that reportedly took in $60 actor of venture-capital money and faltered in February, with its C.E.O. ousted and its appraisal plummeting. Afterwards what happened to Band, the aftermost affair Sternberg wants is to abound too fast for his own good. “Investors are abandoned absorbed in, like: ‘Billion-dollar company! Unicorns!’” Sternberg said. Sternberg doesn’t appetite to be a unicorn. He aloof wants to be assisting by abutting year. “The additional Band approved to grow, that’s aback we chock-full actuality profitable,” he said.

Sternberg wouldn’t bethink this, but we met briefly a connected time ago, aback I covered his bounce appearance in September 2008, bald weeks afore the banking crash. He seemed adapted now — array of softer about the edges, which additionally happens to be how he describes his new line. “I’m abundant lighter as a person,” he said. “I apperceive that whatever I’m accomplishing for assignment is not the end-all, be-all of my life. That doesn’t beggarly I don’t emotionally advance in all this and appetite it to thrive. But my character and faculty of self-worth isn’t angry to its success or failure. Would I like this to work? Sure. But is it action to ruin me? No.”

‘Is there a abode for a $30 actor cast that can self-sustain and be about year afterwards year?’

The aftermost week, Sternberg admitted, had been rough. Admitting Schiff, his managing director, had recovered from Covid-19, a billionaire berry broker abreast Sternberg that he would not be advance any added money. “And it’s not like we haven’t hit our numbers,” Sternberg said. In a way, if it weren’t for the pandemic, this ability accept been the end of Entireworld. Aback the communicable hit, he had maybe six weeks of aerodrome left. The sales bang has continued that to at atomic the end of the summer. Still, he had to get added artefact up on the website, and for that, he had to pay his factories.

He begin the accomplished affair depressing. Actuality he was, conceivably the abandoned one in appearance who couldn’t acquaint article fast abundant in a pandemic, and no one was absorbed in investing. “It’s a slog,” Sternberg said. “It’s a connected alternation of black conversations.”

He anticipation it was apocalyptic of area the industry was now. Addition like Marc Jacobs would apparently be OK, because he was backed by LVMH. But what would appear to the upstarts? If the broad archetypal could no best be relied on to armamentarium adolescent designers, and clandestine disinterestedness and adventure capitalists pushed them to aggrandize so bound that they accordingly imploded, was there any achievement for brands to abound boring and carefully over time? If not, appearance ability go the way of added industries, like film, in which there are the blockbusters and the tiny indies and annihilation in between. “Band didn’t charge to be a $100 actor brand,” Sternberg said. “But is there a abode for a $30 actor cast that can self-sustain and be about year afterwards year? Absolutely not with big backers, because that’s not absorbing to them. Broad acclimated to be able to abutment that, but it additionally ultimately asleep it.”

Fashion is, by definition, unpredictable. Bodies buy clothes for illogical, affecting reasons. The challenge, as Sternberg saw it, was to body a cast that could be allowed to trends and change and whatever dystopian adversity was advancing next. “The ambush with appearance is that we’re not affairs toilet paper,” he said, “which of advance during Covid, toilet-paper sales go up. But ultimately it will akin out, because there’s abandoned so abounding butts in the world. That hasn’t afflicted — bodies are aloof hoarding. Appearance is absolutely different. You accept to accept the aeon will change alike if you’re accomplishing commodity. And how will you accumulate up with that? How do you body a business that can sustain those fluctuations over time?”

That was his pitch, anyway. But so far, no one seemed to be listening. One broker appropriate that maybe Sternberg should about-face Entireworld into a TV appearance that would acquaint the clothes. (Sternberg: “Sounds easy!”) Addition told him, “Wow, it’s abundant that you’re accomplishing well, but I’m absolutely attractive into afflicted assets now.” Instead of advance into a adolescent business that was absolutely authoritative money, the broker was attractive to dive in and aces off bigger brands that were now on the border of bankruptcy. Reviving a body was easier than disposed to a newborn. As this broker saw it, that, in the end, captivated the affiance of a bigger payoff.

Irina Aleksander is a accidental biographer for the magazine. Her aftermost awning adventure was about Oliver Stone’s adventure to accomplish a biopic about Edward Snowden. Stephanie Gonot is a Los Angeles-based columnist and administrator accepted for her use of active colors and antic style.

Prop Styling: Machen Machen Studio

Margin photographs in adjustment of appearance: Polaroids: Band of Outsiders; Obama: Manuel Balce Ceneta/Associated Press, via Shutterstock; Furstenberg: Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times; Teletubbies: Handout, Stiller: RGR Collection/Alamy; Charney: Ann Johansson for The New York Times; Socks: Entireworld; Marc Jacobs broadcast: Awning grab from YouTube; Women’s Abrasion Daily; Runway, from larboard to right: Karl Prouse/Catwalking, via Getty Images, Marilynn K. Yee/The New York Times, Erin Baiano for The New York Times; Rodartes: Brinson Banks for The New York Times; Runway, from larboard to right: Firstview (2), Stefano Rellandini/Reuters; Browne: Donna Ward/Getty Images; Rihanna and Hathaway: Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images; Galliano: Awning grab from YouTube; Beckham boots: Raymond Hall/GC Images, via Getty Images; Hay: Roy Rochlin/Getty Images; Archetypal in blush dress: Alexei Hay; Rosen: Andy Lyons/Getty Images, for The New York Times; Runway: JP Yim/Getty Images, Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images; Wintour: Awning grab from Zoom; Panichgul: JP Yim/Getty Images; Mellon: Andrew Toth/FilmMagic, via Getty Images; Abloh: Daniel Zuchnik/Getty Images; Michele: Karwai Tang/Getty Images; Altuzarra: Lars Niki/Getty Images; Kolb: Ben Gabbe/Getty Images; Jacobs waving: Raymond Hall/GC Images, via Getty Images.

Design and development by Shannon Lin.

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